Oct. 14, 2019
October 2019 - This does not look like the typical start of a US recession.
Following the recent data releases, it is now clear that we are in the middle of a global manufacturing recession, but also that the current state of the US economy does not look as though it is at the beginning of an outright recession. The weakness in the manufacturing sector does not look strong enough to trigger an outright recession. Specifically, the more significant consumption side of the US economy is receiving strong support from the labour market, financial conditions and the housing sector. As conveyed by the business cycle component of our algorithms, the credit and consumption side of the economy is looking too firm and we are therefore positioning our strategies as positive.
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